UFC 107: Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida fight preview and prediction

Published on: 7th December, 2009

UFC 107: Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida fight preview and prediction  | read this item

Narcisist’s Blog: Winner contends, the loser plays Gatekeeper

At UFC 107 Kenny Florian and Clay Guida will face off looking to jump back into title contention in the lightweight division, but will need a very impressive win to do so. The loser of this fight, will be looking at “Gate keeper” status and possibly be years away from another title shot. Both fighters have come close to taking their careers to the next level, but have fell short.

In our first preview for UFC 107, URDirt.com breaks down the Kenny Florian matchup by strengths and weaknesses. We also take a look at how both fighters have come up short in the past and how important this is for their careers.

Kenny Florian 11-4

Kenny Florian is coming off of a loss to lightweight champion BJ Penn at UFC 101 by submission, his first loss in almost three years. Florian’s previous loss was also for a title shot at UFC 64 to Sean Sherk, but unanimous decision.

It took 6 straight wins for Florian to earn his second title shot and he defeated some of the UFC’s best lightweights to earn a shot against Penn. Florian defeated Din Thomas (UFN 11), Joe Lauzon (UFN 13), Roger Huerta (UFC 87) and Joe Stevenson (UFC 91). Florian may have a third chance to fight for a title if he can beat Guida convincingly, if Diego Sanchez captures the title in the main event fight he may also be able to make a case to refuel their rivalry.

Sanchez and Florian fought on the Ultimate Fighter season 1 finale in the middleweight division, but Diego has expressed interest in fighting him in a rematch. Diego’s interest was peaked by a Florian rematch earlier in the year when he was given a title shot before him.

Florian can make a case for a third title shot, but he is going to have to really beat Guida and it will have to be one sided or a really impressive performance. Florian will also have to show that he can beat a fighter with a strong wrestling base, which he has struggled with in the past.

Clay Guida 25-10

Clay Guida has not fought for a title shot, but he has been close to beating some of the UFC’s best lightweight fighters. Guida has dropped close fights to Tyson Griffin (decision), Din Thomas (decision) and Roger Huerta (rear naked choke). After his loss to Huerta, Guida changed his game from being a wild “balls to the walls” fighter to a more conservative ground game fighter.

Guida began to use his wrestling to control his opponents and use his Jiu Jitsu defense in a big win over Nate Diaz at UFC 94. The win over the undefeated Diaz propelled Guida into contention for the first time in his UFC career. He faced off against Sanchez in one of the best fights of 2009 and lost another close decision.

Guida once again came up short, but earned the respect that may get him into contention again with a win over Florian. Let’s be honest, who wouldn’t want to see Guida vs Sanchez 2? If the fight was great for a title shot, imagine how good the fight will be when a belt is on the line and another two rounds.

Kenny Florian’s keys to success

• Use his ability to come up with a solid gameplan to keep Guida from using his speed as a advantage like he did to Roger Huerta.
• Stay off his back where Guida can use his wrestling to score points on the judges score cards.
• Use his elbows if Guida does put him on his back.
• Find a way to finish Guida, if he can do what no one has been able to do he can make a case for a title.
• Keep Guida from gaining any kind of momentum with the audience, he uses it as motivation and it fuels him to do unexpected things.

Clay Guida’s keys to success

• Improved striking, Guida has always been able to wrestle and avoid submissions. He needs better Boxing defense and offense to give his opponents another threat.
• Fight smart, keep his cool and don’t get into a brawl.
• Put Kenny Florian on his back and punish him, look to finish the fight. He has only finished one of his 10 UFC fights. A contender and champion needs to finish.
• Start the fight strong, Guida has lost too many close decision due to slow starts.
• Finish strong and use his wrestling at the end of the round to score points on the judges score cards.

Narcisist’s prediction:This is a tough, tough fight to call because Guida and Florian are so good in different areas. I like Guida’s wrestling, but his inability to keep his composure and his head make him unpredictable when it matters most.

In the end I have to pick Florian by (Split) decision, because he has shown that he can keep the best offensive fighters at bay.

 Narcisist is the Co-owner of UR Dirt and is the designer, editor and author. URDirt.com is a MMA blog that covers the UFC, WEC, StrikeForce, DREAM and several other Mixed Martial Art promotions. Read more from this author

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